# Regime-Contingent CA Effect: Z₁ × Eurozone Interaction

| Variable | Baseline | Z + EZ interact | OECD + EZ int | Post-1990 + EZ |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | 11.9639 | 10.6484 | -33.9832 | 6.5811 |
| | (12.9547) | (13.0028) | (21.6524) | (13.3369) |
| Z_2 | -0.6347 | -0.3841 | 4.2043 | 0.1997 |
| | (1.9762) | (1.9880) | (2.9257) | (2.0374) |
| Z_3 | -0.0038 | -0.0162 | -0.1400 | -0.0392 |
| | (0.0811) | (0.0818) | (0.1104) | (0.0838) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | 0.3594*** | 0.3592*** | 0.1165*** | 0.3627*** |
| | (0.0286) | (0.0286) | (0.0311) | (0.0298) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | 0.8365*** | 0.8456*** | 0.2580 | 0.8971*** |
| | (0.2241) | (0.2239) | (0.3012) | (0.2276) |
| rgdp_growth | 0.1675*** | 0.1678*** | -0.1094*** | 0.1700*** |
| | (0.0169) | (0.0169) | (0.0204) | (0.0175) |
| ez_post | | 1.2282 | 2.5240** | 1.3155 |
| | | (2.3452) | (0.9992) | (2.3621) |
| Z_1_x_eurozone | | 1.0875 | -3.7031*** | 1.2407 |
| | | (3.2651) | (1.4175) | (3.2859) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 6352 | 6352 | 1434 | 6014 |
| R² | 0.1018 | 0.1042 | 0.1578 | 0.1056 |
| Countries | 190 | 190 | 38 | 190 |

*Panel GLS with country and year fixed effects. ez_post = 1 for eurozone members after their accession year. Z_1_x_eurozone tests whether the demographic CA effect differs for eurozone members (who lack exchange rate adjustment).*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*